Talking about “Using Uncertainty Theory in Asset Management Planning” Ross explains the advantage of making lots of small decisions.
In this post, Ross gives an illustration and discusses further.
The other thing is thinking of a car or a boat or something like that. When you’re going in a direction and you want to change direction, it’s easy to do that when you’re moving.
If you’re on a bike, you’re standing still, I want to go that way.
Well, how do I do that if I’m not moving? If you’re moving, you can move around with the flow and stuff like that.
And so how the theory around this stuff now is around momentum.
So you’re going in a direction, it’s easy to change a ship that’s moving or a car that’s moving than one that’s static in terms of changing directions.
And so decision momentum is better than decision paralysis.
The other thing and I had a sort of, I guess an ‘epiphany’ is the word to use about this. Cause at one stage I was doing a heap of analyses I want to present this right to the decision-makers.
It was an elected council at that stage. I’m an engineer by training. I want to do the analysis. I want to go, this is the right result.
And what I realized was they’re going to make the decision anyway whether I provide good information or not.
I think they would probably just make a decision on how they woke up this morning, whether what they had for breakfast, and how they had their coffee, and how they were feeling about life.
And all my analysis may or may not influence their decisions. So the key thing is, political appointees will make the decisions regardless. That’s what they are to do.
And so your analysis has to be timely and it also has to be in a format that they can take on board. And even then they might not, they might go, we don’t believe in that, we’ll do it this way.
So you just have to remember that the decisions get made regardless, whether they are right or wrong.
And the information that you’re presenting helps modify or inform those decisions, if you don’t present anything, decisions will still be made.