Canadian communities, like all others, depend on public infrastructure daily. Roads and bridges connect people to work, school, and essential services.
Water infrastructure provides safe drinking water and prevents flooding in streets and homes.
However, climate change impacts threaten these critical infrastructures, and the costs of maintaining, repairing, and renewing them due to damage from extreme weather events are projected to be significant.
Canada faces significant challenges in adapting its infrastructure to climate change, as it begins from a position of weakness. The nation’s infrastructure is not only aging but already experiencing strain long before the effects of climate change become apparent.
Decades of insufficient investment have resulted in an estimated $294 billion maintenance and investment gap needed to restore the country’s infrastructure to good condition, according to Statistics Canada data from 2025.
Fourteen percent of critical infrastructure—including roads, bridges, public buildings, and water and wastewater systems—are in poor or very poor condition.
Additionally, many of these systems are operating beyond their intended lifespan and are at risk of failure.
The report from the Canadian Climate Institute, released in February 2026, “Prepare for Repair, How climate-proofing public infrastructure pays off”, quantifies the cost of climate change to Canada’s infrastructure and how acting early can significantly reduce those costs.
It presents four scenarios to quantify the effects of climate change on Canada’s public infrastructure, driven by two main stressors – heat and heavy rainfall.
The report uses the latest projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), statistically downscaled to capture local temperature and precipitation patterns across three global emissions pathways—SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, corresponding to around 1.8°C, 2.7°C, and 3.6°C of global warming by 2100, focusing on the SSP2-4.5 or a global warming of 2.7°C, a scenario most aligned with current global policies.
These four scenarios are as follows:
First is the baseline scenario, which projects infrastructure deterioration and costs under historical climate conditions, providing a reference point.
Second, is the no-adaptation scenario where assets continue to be replaced to today’s standards, leaving them fully exposed to increasing climate stress
Third is the reactive adaptation scenario, which assumes that assets are upgraded to be climate-resilient only at the time of replacement, leading to a gradual increase in resilience over time.
And lastly, the proactive adaptation scenario, where upgrades occur at the earliest opportunity, either during major rehabilitation or at the point of full replacement, accelerating the shift toward a more climate-resilient infrastructure network.
The analysis estimates the potential costs of climate change in terms of repair and replacement if no adaptation measures are taken. It then evaluates the benefits of proactive adaptation by quantifying the damage that can be avoided and the advantages of building resilience. Finally, it compares these costs and benefits using clear and accessible economic metrics.
The analysis in the report indicates that while the cost of proactive adaptation is significant, approximately $1.4 billion annually beginning immediately, the average annual investment required over the remainder of the century is around $3 billion. around $3 billion.
However, the long-term cost of doing this will still be substantially lower and more predictable than that of a reactive or no-adaptation approach.
The report’s analysis indicates that proactive adaptation reduces average annual infrastructure costs by $5.4 billion compared with the reactive approach and by $9.9 billion compared with the no-adaptation scenario.
The report notes that “proactive adaptation investments deliver strong value for money even when only considering direct infrastructure costs borne by governments. Across every infrastructure asset type, the direct benefits of proactive adaptation far exceed the costs—even when future benefits are discounted at relatively high rates. Achieving these savings does not require a dramatic increase in spending: adapting infrastructure to rising heat and extreme rainfall would require sustained investment averaging about $3 billion per year—roughly 2.5 percent above the spending currently required to keep public infrastructure in good repair.”
Chapter six of the report provides policy recommendations on how Canada’s government, at the federal and territorial levels, can move forward and overcome the fiscal and incentive barriers to implementing proactive, coordinated public infrastructure adaptation.
Source:
Prepare or Repair. How climate-proofing public infrastructure pays off. (2026). Canadian Climate Institute. Retrieved from https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/prepare-or-repair-canada-infrastructure/
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