Infrastructure Asset Management – Challenges of Shrinking Cities

The postindustrial phenomenon of shrinking cities is a topic of considerable importance to infrastructure asset managers.

The prediction of future demand is a core component of infrastructure asset management, and along with understanding levels of service, this guides the development planning for asset acquisition, management, renewal, and disposal.

The shrinking city phenomenon is particularly challenging to infrastructure asset management practitioners as in the modern context it is relatively new, and the impacts and outcomes are still developing.  

A city that is shrinking quickly such as Detroit poses a range of challenges and questions for infrastructure asset managers – how to fund infrastructure, what population to plan for, what service levels are realistic and affordable, what to renew, what to decommission or abandon.

Shrinking cities and towns are driven by identifiable criteria (there is a growing body of academic research), with Wikipedia providing a good overview and summary:

1. Urban development model
2. Once company town, mono structure model
3. Shock Therapy model
4. Smart decline

Simply the main drivers appear to be:

• deindustrialization
• the economic impacts of changing global trade flows
• the impact of large natural disasters

The effects of shrinking cities are observed:

• Economically
• Social and infrastructural
• Politically

With regard to infrastructure, the principal effect is one of steady gradual decline and deterioration due to lack of investment caused by a long-term weak and declining economy.  This is difficult to plan for and difficult to manage, as there will be correlated with the ongoing decline in infrastructure maintenance and management resources.

Worldwide there are many examples of shrinking cities, and so the effects and impacts with relation to infrastructure can be studied and assessed:

• Leipzig and Dresden in Germany
• Manchester and Liverpool in the UK
• Cleveland, Detroit and New Orleans in the USA

The Wikipedia article provides some good overview case studies and links to further resources and is a good starting point for an investigation into this topic.

Whilst larger cities are cited above, the shrinking city phenomena is also impacting smaller towns in agricultural and provincial areas worldwide, with urbanization and changing agricultural and land-use practices contributing to the changes.  

Changing demography is also a contributing factor.

For the infrastructure asset management practitioner, projecting and managing future growth or decline is integral to good infrastructure management practice.

Gaining a thorough understanding of the trends, issues, and projections – economically, socially and politically will assist you in the analysis of the impacts in relation to infrastructure.