So this is Central Otago, much smaller authority. This is water. Theuns has done some very interesting work with them around transportation.
Cumulative price, but the really interesting thing with them is the average, the hundred-year average isn’t too bad. Just over a million dollars a year, it’s quite a small area.
At the moment, the 30-year average is as well below that. And then and about 2041, it steps up. That’s that 1960s renewal coming in.
For them, it seems to be there. And then I’ve got another peak there. My guess is that peak is the secondary pipe peak.
I don’t know if they’ve got treatment assets in there but they can now have a discussion about, hey, do we fund the 100-year average?
Or for the next 40 years, do we fund 30-year average and then pick it up but you can start having that discussion.
They haven’t got too many big peaks in there. And those big peaks, they developed their water supplies a bit later than the early 1960s.
So Waimakariri, just north of Christchurch. Okay. So, they’ve gone out a 100-years and not too bad but I want to ask you, what do you think that is in 100 years out?
The tip was just north of Christchurch. What do you think, why Waimakariri just north of Christchurch has been doing for the last five years?
They’ve been replacing water supply assets. They’ve got completely knocked over in the earthquake.
And that those assets are getting replaced in 100 years’ time, they have assigned a 100-year life to the pipe.
So, in their case, just back here which shown in the graph. So they’ve got a massive amount of replacement that is all earthquake-related.
So, a big natural event creates a wave. And you can see what it’s doing. So they’ve got relatively, you know the $20-million a year for them through.
And then when they started going into the earthquake replacement, it skips up to about almost 30. So, a 50 percent increase in cost as an echo of the earthquake.
This was Hamilton City, just a 10-year one, has a different way of presenting the information.
So, in this case, they’ve got all of their assets and they made the graphic bigger. When they got bigger lumps of money. I quite like this one, I thought you know, it’s just a nice way of displaying the information.
So, it doesn’t always have to be an infographic to display as around thinking about a simple presentation of information. So, that’s their entire 10-year expenditure plan for Hamilton City Council on one page.
And I think it’s sort of, you can have a look at it and oh, so we’ve got lots of water, and we’ve got a fair bit of roading there, some wastewater there, and some parks on there, or some stadium or something. Easy to understand.
So, this is about taking lots and lots of complex analysis simple demonstration.
Good dTIMs Model Results
So, this is Theun’s Central Otago dTIMs model, which is actually so good that we put it into the International Infrastructure Management Manual.
And the thing is here is that this is out 2034. So, good forward predictions in dTIMs. And you would have to say, you know, 20 kilometers a year, might be the right amount for them.
Thirteen is nowhere near enough and 26 is too much but where did they settle there, Theuns? About 20 or…
Theuns: Yeah, they, the issue was not for them the kilometers.
Yeah, so this was about risk versus preservation of assets and the detailed analysis in dTIMs lots and lots of details there but that one graph, that’s what you go to your decision-makers and say, hey we don’t want to be this low cause that’s too much risk.
Red is risk, green is good, but we don’t want to be right here because we’re overcooking it, we’re wasting money almost.
So maybe here, where we’re taking only really a very low risk, but we’re still getting a pretty good result.
But that in their case I think that was $300,000 a year that they manage to take out of their transportation budget on, quite a small network just by doing a dTIMs risk versus cost analysis.
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Shellie via Flickr Creative Commons License