Are Americans driving less, and if so, what is the implication for the future of its infrastructure?
An article in For Construction shows that despite the projection of increased driving miles for Americans in 2022, the actual data shows a decrease in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), especially in younger Americans.
The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) predicted drivers would travel 4.2 trillion miles in 2022, but the actual VMT is less than 1 trillion miles.
This is because the younger generation is driving less than the older ones. For instance, a new study shows that Millennials born from 1981 to 1996 have lower daily VMT than Generation X (born between 1981 and 1995) by 8%, and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) have higher VMT at 9% than Millennials (Zhang & Li, 2022).
Tony Dutzik, the Assoc. Director and Sr. Policy Analyst, Frontier Group, wrote the following on Twitter:
“Americans drove 4.3% fewer miles on average in 2022 than they did in 2019 and 6% fewer miles than in the all-time peak per-capita driving year of 2004. Up 0.9% from 2021 [which was itself] down 2.9% from the pre-pandemic year of 2019, per FHWA.”
This trend is because millennials choose to drive less to work or meet other obligations. Teens and young adults postpone getting their driver’s licenses, if not skipping it altogether.
Additionally, remote work also contributes to decreasing commuting for millions of Americans.
Climate change may be another factor that younger generations drive less. CNBC reports a result of a global study in 2021 revealing that 45% of those aged between 16 to 25 are most prone to climate anxiety and more motivated to act on the issue.
Calls to action to reduce carbon emissions that cause climate change include more pedestrian and cycle infrastructure, public infrastructure, and alternative transportation methods such as carpooling.
So how will the trend of driving less in America affect transportation infrastructure?
According to the article, there will be changes regarding where infrastructure spending will go.
First, there will be an increased focus on making cities walkable, multi-modal transit development, and infrastructure. Based on the decreasing driving trends in America, large sums of funding will go to road repair and maintenance instead of highway expansion and new road construction.
The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law passed in November 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act, the following year in August 2022, collectively represent the most significant commitment of the U.S.
Federal Government to the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system and infrastructure, including money for roads, bridges, and mass transit by investing nearly $700 billion in total.
Regarding spending the money, the States will have the principal role in deciding where the federal dollars will go. Data and projections will be crucial to guide spending decisions or what projects should be given priority.
The article notes that forecasts of the future based on trends are essential and act as a primary justification for how current and future monies will be allocated.
But predicting the future is tricky, and Dutzik has this advice, “building our transportation decisions around the future we want, as opposed to the future we think might happen, seems like the better way to go.”
Source:
Noel, B. (2023, March 7). People Are Driving Less. What Could That Mean for Future Infrastructure? For Construction. Retrieved from https://www.forconstructionpros.com/infrastructure/article/22738050/what-does-a-decrease-in-driving-mean-for-the-future-infrastructure
Liu, M. (2020, April 2). How 2 Gen Z climate leaders turn their eco-anxiety into action: ‘This isn’t a fad. This is the future’. CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/02/how-2-gen-z-climate-leaders-turned-their-eco-anxiety-into-action.html
Zhang, M., & Li, Y. (2022). Generational travel patterns in the United States: New insights from eight national travel surveys. Transportation research part A: policy and practice, 156, 1-13.
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